One Year since the Establishment of the Islamic State: Al-Baghdadi’s Successful Gamble, Thus Far

by Yoram Schweitzer

 

The Islamic State, now marking its first anniversary, is an autonomous entity controlling a considerable geographical area within the territory of Iraq and Syria. Assessing the first year of his tenure as caliph of the Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi can crown his gamble a success, at least in the meantime.

 

 

The terrorist attacks that were carried out last week in Tunisia, Kuwait, and France are sharp new indicators that the campaign to defeat the Islamic State can be expected to exact a heavy price in human casualties in different locations around the world, not only in Iraq and Syria. • Israel, which monitors the events along its borders and regards itself as a part of the international effort against the Islamic State, must take into account that it too will be a future target of Islamic State attacks or attacks by Islamic State partners, both along its borders and abroad. Therefore, it must assist and support the international efforts to defeat the Islamic State, and take preemptive intelligence and operational measures to thwart any potential attacks aimed at Israel and Israeli citizens and strike those behind the attacks when they occur.

The Islamic State, now marking its first anniversary, is an autonomous entity controlling a considerable geographical area within the territory of Iraq and Syria, two countries of major importance in the Middle East. Assessing the first year of his tenure as caliph of the Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi can crown his gamble a success, at least in the meantime. 

Over the past year, al-Baghdadi has managed to survive a number of assassination attempts, and the Islamic State (IS) project has not collapsed, despite international pressure. Although the string of conquests that began following the establishment of ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) in April 2013 was halted, the Islamic State can still nonetheless claim some new territorial gains, for example Ramadi in Iraq and Palmyra in Syria Despite the extensive casualties suffered by the Islamic State in those two countries, the flow of new recruits to its ranks has not stopped. According to reports published in the West, their number has grown steadily and already exceeds the overall number of volunteers who in the 1980s joined the ranks of the mujahidin in Afghanistan to fight the Soviet army.

The military action in Iraq and Syria by the international coalition against the Islamic State over the past yearwas manifested primarily in air strikes and consulting and training for Iraqi forces; it still has not resulted in the organization’s defeat. Thus, the absence of significant achievements in this realm and the weakening of the international and inter-Arab coalition have allowed al-Baghdadi to maintain his image of success and resilience in the eyes of his supporters. This image has been reinforced by an aggressive media strategy, implemented in a centralized and sophisticated manner by Islamic State operatives, and in a decentralized manner by supporters around the world using a variety of social media outlets.