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Ukraine recap: how the conflict might unfold in its second year

By Jonathan Este, Associate Editor, International Affairs Editor

Almost exactly a year ago – on February 17 2022 – we published a story by David Galbreath, an expert in international security from the University of Bath. In it he pointed to the fact that – despite the Kremlin’s repeated assurances to the contrary – an invasion of Ukraine was looking more and more likely.

He provided three possible scenarios. The first was a decapitation of Ukraine via a rapid incursion through Belarus…

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