MRP poll puts Reform ahead of Labour and the Tories – here’s why the finding should be treated with caution

By Paul Whiteley, Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex

Thinktank More in Common recently published an MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) poll which appears to show that if there was a general election in the near future, Reform would win 180 seats. According to the analysis, Labour and the Conservatives would win 165 seats each and the Liberal Democrats 67. The modelling suggests that Labour could lose 246 seats including 153 to Reform and 64 to the Conservatives.

More in Common claims that this is not a prediction…

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