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I studied the evidence behind theories of Oscar success – here’s what I found

By Andre Spicer, Professor of Organisational Behaviour, Bayes Business School, City St George's, University of London

When Oscar-winning screenwriter William Goldman was asked whether it was possible to predict a hit film, he responded with three words that have become a Hollywood maxim: “Nobody knows anything.” He went on to explain that “not one person in the entire motion picture field knows for a certainty what’s going to work”.

Although Goldman’s famous phrase might resonate through…

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