Ukraine war: game theory reveals the complexities (and fragility) of a nuclear deterrent

By Renaud Foucart, Senior Lecturer in Economics, Lancaster University Management School, Lancaster University

Since the cold war, deterrence has been a fundamental principle underpinning peace between global superpowers. The idea is that if two sides have nuclear weapons, the consequences of actually using them mean the button never gets pressed.

But the strategy goes beyond the countries which own the weapons. In practice, for instance, most of Europe relies on the US for a nuclear “umbrella” of deterrence. And any country with nuclear weapons can offer guarantees of peace to others.

This is what happened in 1994 when Russia, the UK and the US signed the Budapest…

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