What are the most likely scenarios in the Ukrainian war?

By Daniel Romera Mejías, Investigador en el departamento de Derecho Internacional Público y Relaciones Internacionales, Universidad de Sevilla
Waldimeiry Correa da Silva, Investigadora Distinguida EMERGIA - Departamento de Derecho Internacional Público y Relaciones Internacionales, Universidad de Sevilla

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 marked a turning point in European and global geopolitics, challenging the foundations of the post-Cold War security order. Three years into the conflict, the European Union today faces a variety of scenarios that could redefine not only Ukraine’s future, but also the EU’s role and influence on the international stage.

The conflict has highlighted the limitations of EU foreign and security policy, underlining Europe’s dependence on transatlantic alliances and its vulnerabilities to crisis in its immediate neighbourhood.

In this context,…

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