Coalition still ahead in latest polls, but some promising news for Labor

By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

A national Freshwater poll for The Financial Review, conducted January 17–19 from a sample of 1,063, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, unchanged since December. Primary votes were 40% Coalition (steady), 32% Labor (up two), 13% Greens (down one) and 15% for all Others (down one).

As is the case with YouGov below, Freshwater uses 2022 preference flows for its two-party estimates, and applying 2022 preference flows to the primary votes…

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