Israel-Iran and the nine stages of how conflicts can escalate and get out of control

By Matthew Powell, Teaching Fellow in Strategic and Air Power Studies, University of Portsmouth

Tensions are running high in the Middle East. The murderous attack by Hamas on Israel on October 7 2023 kicked off a spiral of violence in the region. That has culminated, a year later, in Israel mounting a ground invasion of Lebanon. The invasion, which Israel says aims to confront and destroy Hezbollah, follows 12 months of tit-for-tat strikes between Israel and Iran, which have gradually escalated in intensity.

Given that Hezbollah is closely associated…

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