Harris leads Trump in the polls – here’s what they really tell us about her chances

By Paul Whiteley, Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex

Poll data shows that Kamala Harris now leads Donald Trump in the US presidential election campaign. She has an average vote intention score of 48.2%, compared with Trump’s 45.8%, according to FiveThirtyEight, a website that looks at a range of polls.

She leads in the race, although the margins are still tight. A poll of polls like this one is likely to be more accurate than a single one, giving a much better indication of any trends.

Many factors are at work when people…

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