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Australia’s 3.8% inflation rate is concerning, but not enough to trigger a rate rise

By John Hawkins, Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra

After falling for five consecutive quarters to less than half of its 7.8% peak, inflation climbed slightly in the June quarter, from 3.6% to 3.8% for the year to June.

A rate of 3.8% is what the Reserve Bank had forecast. It is in line with market expectations, and well down on the 6% recorded this time last year.