The problems with climate scenarios, and how to fix them

By Riccardo Rebonato, Professor of finance and scientific director (EDHEC Risk Climate Impact Institute), EDHEC Business School

Faced with the uncertainties surrounding climate change, policymakers and investors need to know what can happen and how likely these outcomes may be. Unfortunately, current scenarios answer only the first question – and at that, only partially. Research carried out at the EDHEC Risk Climate Institute tries to provide approximate but “actionable” answers to the second.

Climate stress testing dates back to the 1990s, when teams of scientists collaborated to create a scenario framework that was to set…

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