Canada. Composite leading index on the rise

The composite leading index rose 0.9% in January, about equal to its average increase over the previous eight months but less than the 1.5% gain in December. Overall, 8 of the 10 components rose, while the 2 that declined were related to manufacturing.

Household spending remained the leading source of growth in the overall index. The housing index advanced another 1.3%, with solid gains in both existing home sales and housing starts. Spending on durable goods continued to increase, despite a temporary deceleration in auto sales. Personal and business services contributed about equally to the growth in the services employment component.

The leading indicator for the United States rose about 1% for the fifth straight month. Real gross domestic product growth in the fourth quarter hit a six-year high. These gains in Canada's primary export market were reflected in the largest hike in the ratio of shipments to inventories since April 2002. The increase was driven by both a strengthening upturn in sales and steady declines in inventories. However, new orders for manufactured goods remained highly volatile, as consecutive gains of 7% were followed by a 1% decline. Most of this volatility originated in aerospace.

The stock market rally slowed, from a peak rate increase of over 5% in the trend to 0.4% in January.

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