Myanmar. Next year's Anticipated Elections present Opportunity for Change

Yangon/Brussels : Controversial elections anticipated next year present an opportunity for change in Myanmar that should not be squandered.

Myanmar: Towards the Elections, the latest International Crisis Group report, looks at the national vote – the first in twenty years – in the context of the country’s constitutional history. Criticism of the constitution, approved in a dubious 2008 referendum, has focused on military control, ethnic autonomy, qualifications for office and amendment procedures. But the elections are significant because they will give life to a document that involves complete reconfiguration of the political structure.

“The military presumably wants to use the elections to ensure its continued dominance, but this is the most wide-ranging shake-up in a generation”, says Jim Della-Giacoma, Crisis Group’s South East Asia Project Director. “The government, opposition, neighbours and the wider international community must all prepare for the possibility of change they may not be able to control”.

The controversial constitution establishes a presidential system of government with a bicameral legislature as well as fourteen regional governments and assemblies. Myanmar’s senior leaders, Generals Than Shwe and Maung Aye, may step aside or move into ceremonial roles, making way for a younger military generation. Domestic and international stakeholders should be alert to opportunities that may arise to push the new government toward reform and reconciliation.

The National League for Democracy (NLD) – the party of Aung San Suu Kyi, the Nobel Peace Prize laureate whose house arrest has just been extended by the regime – has announced it will boycott the elections if the constitution is not changed, and it is not given the freedom to organise. The NLD won the 1990 elections overwhelmingly but the army refused to hand over power, and it was not included in the constitution-writing process. A boycott could play into the hands of the military government. It would not prevent the election from going ahead and would mainly deprive non-government candidates of votes, potentially narrowing the range of voices in future legislatures.

If Myanmar authorities want to end their international marginalisation, they must make the electoral process more credible. Aung San Suu Kyi and all other political prisoners must be released now and allowed to participate fully. Politically-motivated arrests must cease. It is also essential to promulgate key electoral legislation that allows parties to register without undue restriction, gives space for canvassing activities and ensures transparent counting of votes.

“The elections will be neither free nor fair, and all change is not positive, but the international community should not let justified outrage over the treatment of Aung San Suu Kyi and democracy’s suppression prevent it from looking for opportunities to influence events”, says Robert Templer, Crisis Group’s Asia Program Director. “Ultimately, it is Myanmar’s people who have paid the biggest price for the political deadlock. As Myanmar prepares for this transition, all sides should be alert to the new opportunities as well as risks that may be present”.

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